Earnings Drive Returns

Follow the earnings.

What This Means

At the end of the day, a stock represents ownership in a business. And just like any business, what ultimately matters is its ability to grow profits over time.

Companies that consistently increase their earnings tend to reward shareholders over the long run because those growing profits make the business more valuable. While stock prices may fluctuate from day to day based on headlines, emotions, or economic uncertainty, earnings are what ultimately drive long-term returns.

That’s one of the reasons I spend far more time focusing on company fundamentals than short-term market predictions. Are earnings growing? Is the business executing on its strategy? Is demand for its products or services increasing?

While it’s possible to identify individual companies with strong earnings growth, I often prefer looking at sectors and areas of the market where earnings are growing broadly. If an entire industry is benefiting from long-term trends, it can provide multiple opportunities without relying on picking a single winner.

No investment is guaranteed, but over time, growing earnings have been one of the strongest drivers of stock returns.

Common Questions

How much should earnings be growing?

It varies company to company.  We prefer double digit earnings growth at a minimum. Another thing that is very important is consistent earnings growth- meaning a company is growing their earnings for multiple quarters/years in a row.

Why focus on sectors?

If certain parts of the market are growing earnings it’s more powerful than one stock.  Sectors can provide growth without single stock risk.

Remember This:

Over the long run, earnings- not headlines- drive returns. 

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