Market Shakes Off End To Iran Ceasefire

July 10, 2026

The ceasefire with Iran officially ended on Wednesday.

President Trump announced the ceasefire with Iran had ended. At the same time, both sides said talks would continue.

If you only watched the headlines, you’d probably think the market had a rough week.

It didn’t.

Oil initially jumped from about $68 per barrel to nearly $75 as investors reacted to the news. But the pop didn’t last. Just two days later, oil is back around $71 per barrel. That’s only slightly higher than where it started the week and still roughly 40% below its peak back in March.

The stock market told a similar story. The S&P 500 finished the week up about 1%, while the Nasdaq gained roughly 2%.

So what is the market telling us?

Right now, it’s sending a pretty clear message. Investors are not expecting a major disruption to oil supplies or a significant escalation in the conflict.

This is the same message the market has been sending for the past two months.

After such a strong move in stocks over the last 90 days, this could have easily been an excuse for investors to take some money off the table—or for oil to move much higher than it did.

Instead, neither happened.

The bottom line is this: we’ve seen tensions in the Middle East last for years, and it wouldn’t surprise me if this one does too.

This is an important reminder for long-term investors.

Headlines are meant to grab our attention.

The market does something different. It is constantly weighing the odds and looking ahead.

Those two things do not always tell the same story.

As investors, it’s easy to react emotionally to breaking news. But some of the biggest investing mistakes happen when we confuse a scary headline with a long-term investment outcome.

Things can change. But until they do…

Stay the course.

Have a great weekend.