The AI “Bubble”

June 26, 2026

A bubble is filled with air.  Eventually, the air leaks out, and the bubble pops.

Now think about a sandbag.

Sure, over time it might lose a few grains of sand. But the filling is real. It’s solid.  This is exactly what comes to mind when I hear all the AI “Bubble” talk.

Personally… I just don’t see it.

Why?

Because it’s being backed by real revenues and real earnings.

Micron- which reported yesterday is the latest example.  But not the only example.
Revenues grew 355% and earnings quadrupled year over year.  They also raised their guidance for future earnings.

Sure… eventually these companies won’t grow earnings at the pace they are today. That’s normal.
Apple’s growth eventually slowed… So did Microsoft’s…

Nearly every companies growth will slow at some point.  But that is too be expected and doesn’t mean a bubble “popping”.

This is how we are looking at what is happening:
“Wait- if these companies are growing this fast and have X earnings- their valuations were simply too low.”

That’s not a bubble.  That’s a revaluation!

Could I be wrong about all this? Yes 100%.  But this is how I see it and why I have consistently said that the move in the semiconductors is justified.  And they have been driving performance all year.

I also think there is a far better chance that some risk we don’t know about today eventually causes the next big correction as opposed to  the AI trade falling apart.

I think the bubble comparisons miss the mark.  Stocks will fluctuate- these ones will move a lot!

But they are not just telling a story- they are backing it up with results.

Have a great weekend!