The Biggest Risk Isn’t As Big Anymore

June 19, 2026

Higher and higher oil prices can really derail an economy. But that risk has cooled off… at least for now.

Over the past two months, we’ve said several times that, barring any major escalation, the market was largely looking past the Iran conflict.

This week, the news was positive. The U.S. and Iran appear to have de-escalated tensions. The price action in oil and the stock market has been expecting this.  That’s why it’s so important to listen to what the market is saying.

Oil was down roughly $10 this week and back into the $70s, essentially returning to levels we saw before the conflict began.

Is the fighting over?

Will oil stay low?

Will the agreement last?

I have no clue.

But oil being back in the mid-$70s is a great sign.

For me, spiking oil was always one of the biggest risks to the economy.

Consumers can handle temporary spikes in gas prices. We also have to remember that this is the summer driving season, a time of year when we often see prices rise anyway.

The concern was never a short-term move higher. It was oil remaining stubbornly elevated for an extended period of time. Or even worse, running away to $150 or $200 per barrel like some of the so-called “experts” were predicting.

That would eventually work its way through the entire economy.

Higher costs at the pump. Higher costs for businesses. More inflation. Probably slower economic growth.

But that risk has cooled off, and that’s a great sign for both the economy and stocks.

More headlines will come. Maybe this isn’t the end. But I think it’s always important to recognize when a major risk is moving in the right direction.

As investors, I think we spend a lot more time wondering what can go wrong than acknowledging when something actually goes right.

This week was a win… for peace and for the economy.

Hopefully it lasts.