It’s The Final Countdown… I Mean Quarter

October 2, 2026

We closed the books on the third quarter this week, and now we’re headed into the home stretch of 2026.

And as they say in sports — games are won in the fourth quarter.

Truth be told, I don’t think the next three months are make or break for the market. But the fourth quarter has historically been the strongest quarter of the year for stocks.

Before we look ahead, let’s take a quick temperature check on where things stand.

The S&P 500 finished Q3 up about 2%, bringing its gain for the year to just shy of 12%.

The AI-heavy Nasdaq has been even stronger — up close to 16% YTD.

So… despite plenty of headlines that have had investors scratching their heads, stocks have been solid all year.

Interest rates, oil prices, and even fears of total annihilation from AI have all had their moment in the spotlight.

Stocks have shrugged them off. And for good reason.

Oil spiked to levels that had people worried — and then came back down almost just as fast.

Interest rates have been flying higher too.

Is that eventually going to hurt the market? Or are rates moving higher because the economy is stronger than expected?

We don’t know yet. I lean toward the strong economy side.

And don’t forget — higher rates aren’t bad for everyone. Savers are finally getting paid again, and you can actually earn a pretty good return on bonds and other fixed-income investments.

Then there’s AI.

The conversation has quickly gone from AI is going to change the world to AI is going to destroy the world.

That seems a little far-fetched to me.

Bottom line — there will always be something to worry about.

Over the long run, the trend in stocks and the trend in earnings are what really matter.

And right now, both have been solid.

As we always say… things don’t change just because the calendar changes.

And history does signal a pretty good setup.

The fourth quarter has historically been the strongest quarter of the year for stocks, averaging around 4%. And in midterm election years, that average has been closer to 6%.

We’ll keep watching the same stories. But as long as earnings hold up and oil doesn’t go parabolic, I think we have a pretty good setup heading down the stretch.

Then there’s always the issue that comes out of left field and messes with the market.

But we can’t plan for it, predict it, or know when it’s coming.

So… stay the course.

And until something materially changes…

Let’s finish strong!