Has The Market Been Bad? What The Nasdaq Composite Is Telling Us

September 18, 2026

I’ve heard from a lot of people lately who feel like the market has been bad.

But when I look at the Nasdaq, I see something different.

I’m looking at the Nasdaq because I think it really led the rally earlier this year.

After a roughly 35% move off the March low, the Nasdaq peaked in early June and then pulled back.

Take a look at the Nasdaq Composite daily chart.

For roughly the last month, the Nasdaq has been trading in a pretty tight range — only about 4% from top to bottom.

I don’t look at that as a bad thing. I look at it as consolidation.

After a 35% move higher in a short period of time, it’s pretty normal for the market to take a break and digest some of those gains.

The question now is which way this range breaks.

My opinion? The longer we hold this range, the more I like the chances of an upside breakout. We’re also moving sideways near the old highs, which I view as a positive sign.

A lot of the backdrop that drove the move off the spring lows is still there, and I view a continuation of that move as the more likely outcome.

But make no mistake — for a long-term investor, whether the Nasdaq breaks out next week or pulls back first isn’t nearly as important as it might sound.

I’m not trying to predict the market’s next move. I just think there’s value in paying attention to what it’s telling us; and keeping things in perspective.